Walk-Forward Optimizer

Each year, the best (take_profit %, hold_days) are chosen from a 4×4 grid using only prior-year data. Out-of-sample test results are shown alongside the fixed 5% / 90d baseline. Does adapting parameters beat the fixed strategy?

WFO 2017–2025 Total
+381.8%
compounded
Fixed 5%/90d Total
+682.7%
compounded
SPY Total
+250.7%
compounded
WFO Outperformed Fixed
2 / 9 years
avg WFO +21.3% vs fixed +28.4%

Annual Returns — WFO vs Fixed 5%/90d vs SPY

2017best: 10% / 120d▲ WFO wins
WFO
+15.9%
Fixed
+14.9%
SPY
+20.8%
2018best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
+20.8%
Fixed
+25.0%
SPY
-5.3%
2019best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
+67.0%
Fixed
+89.0%
SPY
+31.1%
2020best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
+26.7%
Fixed
+37.0%
SPY
+17.2%
2021best: 10% / 120d▲ WFO wins
WFO
+42.3%
Fixed
+31.3%
SPY
+30.5%
2022best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
-21.5%
Fixed
-14.5%
SPY
-18.6%
2023best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
+9.0%
Fixed
+10.8%
SPY
+26.7%
2024best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
+17.4%
Fixed
+46.9%
SPY
+25.6%
2025best: 10% / 120dfixed wins
WFO
+13.9%
Fixed
+15.2%
SPY
+18.0%

Take-Profit Selected by Year

2017
+10%
(train score +6.70%)
2018
+10%
(train score +5.09%)
2019
+10%
(train score +4.58%)
2020
+10%
(train score +4.41%)
2021
+10%
(train score +4.12%)
2022
+10%
(train score +4.13%)
2023
+10%
(train score +3.66%)
2024
+10%
(train score +3.64%)
2025
+10%
(train score +3.38%)
+10% chosen 9×

Hold Days Selected by Year

2017
120d
8 trades 50% win
2018
120d
3 trades 67% win
2019
120d
15 trades 80% win
2020
120d
3 trades 67% win
2021
120d
77 trades 75% win
2022
120d
34 trades 62% win
2023
120d
61 trades 64% win
2024
120d
62 trades 86% win
2025
120d
47 trades 64% win
120d chosen 9×

Full Year Results

YearBest TP%Best HDTrain ScoreWFO ReturnFixed ReturnSPYWFO TradesWFO Win%
2017+10%120d+6.70%+15.9%+14.9%+20.8%850%
2018+10%120d+5.09%+20.8%+25.0%-5.3%367%
2019+10%120d+4.58%+67.0%+89.0%+31.1%1580%
2020+10%120d+4.41%+26.7%+37.0%+17.2%367%
2021+10%120d+4.12%+42.3%+31.3%+30.5%7775%
2022+10%120d+4.13%-21.5%-14.5%-18.6%3462%
2023+10%120d+3.66%+9.0%+10.8%+26.7%6164%
2024+10%120d+3.64%+17.4%+46.9%+25.6%6286%
2025+10%120d+3.38%+13.9%+15.2%+18.0%4764%