Compounder
Walk-forward 2015–2025 (backtest) + 2026 YTD live. 5% of portfolio per signal, up to 20 concurrent positions. Sell at +5% profit or after 90 days. Signals: Top Tier analyst upgrades + seasonal patterns.
StrategyBaseSeason ConfirmedAnalyst TargetAnalyst Target + SeasonSector H2 AwareSector H2 + Analyst TargetRebalance (max 20)Rebalance (unlimited)Base 10%Season Confirmed 10%Fixed +5% target, dynamic sizing, breakeven exit
2026 YTDLIVEas of 2026-03-20
Starting Value
$76,824
end of 2025
Current Value
$74,299
YTD Return
-3.3%
vs SPY YTD
+1.8%
SPY -5.1%
Closed trades: 28Win rate: 100%Open positions: 20
| Ticker | Signal | Entry Date | Entry $ | Last $ | Return | Days | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | analyst | 2026-02-17 | $45.93 | $45.73 | -0.43% | 31d | +5% |
| SO | analyst | 2026-03-06 | $97.35 | $95.43 | -1.97% | 14d | +5% |
| GOOGL | analyst | 2026-02-24 | $310.52 | $301.87 | -2.79% | 24d | +5% |
| TMUS | analyst | 2026-02-20 | $214.31 | $207.72 | -3.08% | 28d | +5% |
| ABNB | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $135.94 | $129.91 | -4.44% | 77d | +5% |
| WBD | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $28.79 | $27.41 | -4.80% | 77d | +5% |
| NFLX | analyst | 2026-03-09 | $97.70 | $91.20 | -6.65% | 11d | +5% |
| DDOG | analyst | 2026-01-28 | $139.66 | $127.96 | -8.38% | 51d | +5% |
| IEX | analyst | 2026-02-09 | $211.96 | $187.11 | -11.72% | 39d | +5% |
| CRWD | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $474.00 | $410.29 | -13.44% | 77d | +5% |
| MDT | analyst | 2026-01-07 | $100.68 | $87.09 | -13.49% | 72d | +5% |
| PTC | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $174.34 | $150.03 | -13.94% | 77d | +5% |
| CEG | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $358.00 | $307.48 | -14.11% | 77d | +5% |
| PLTR | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $181.30 | $151.83 | -16.25% | 77d | +5% |
| TSLA | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $457.80 | $372.90 | -18.55% | 77d | +5% |
| A | analyst | 2026-01-06 | $142.18 | $111.97 | -21.24% | 73d | +5% |
| WAT | analyst | 2026-01-06 | $394.38 | $300.87 | -23.71% | 73d | +5% |
| NOW | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $153.08 | $111.47 | -27.18% | 77d | +5% |
| DASH | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $229.73 | $155.35 | -32.38% | 77d | +5% |
| WDAY | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | $215.20 | $135.29 | -37.13% | 77d | +5% |
| Strategy | Final Value | Total Return | vs SPY | Trades | Win Rate | Avg Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶Base | $74,299 | +395.3% | +162.4% | 718 | 83.1% | 44d |
| Season Confirmed | $34,577 | +130.5% | -102.4% | 652 | 84.0% | 42d |
| Analyst Target | $59,100 | +294.0% | +61.1% | 582 | 74.1% | 55d |
| Analyst Target + Season | $40,725 | +171.5% | -61.4% | 510 | 74.9% | 55d |
| Sector H2 Aware | $72,070 | +380.5% | +147.6% | 718 | 83.1% | 44d |
| Sector H2 + Analyst Target | $61,263 | +308.4% | +75.5% | 592 | 73.8% | 55d |
| Rebalance (max 20) | $52,556 | +250.4% | +17.5% | 805 | 84.2% | 43d |
| Rebalance (unlimited) | $43,889 | +192.6% | -40.3% | 9,891 | 82.7% | 44d |
| Base 10% | $56,238 | +274.9% | +42.0% | 429 | 65.7% | 69d |
| Season Confirmed 10% | $41,221 | +174.8% | -58.1% | 401 | 68.3% | 67d |
Final Portfolio
$74,299
started $15,000
10-Year Total Return
+395.3%
Total Trades
718
523 analyst · 195 seasonal
Profit Exit Rate
83.1%
hit +5% before day 90
Avg Hold
44d
Position Size
Dynamic
cash ÷ signals available
Portfolio Growth — Strategy vs SPY $15k Buy-and-Hold
| Year | Trades | Analyst / Seasonal | Profit Exits | Avg Hold | Year-End Value | Annual Ret | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | 17 / 0 | 12 / 17(71%) | 75d | $17,228 | +14.9% | +20.8% | -5.9% |
| 2018 | 9 | 9 / 0 | 8 / 9(89%) | 35d | $21,541 | +25.0% | -5.2% | +30.3% |
| 2019 | 82 | 37 / 45 | 67 / 82(82%) | 40d | $32,875 | +52.6% | +31.1% | +21.5% |
| 2020 | 63 | 39 / 24 | 48 / 63(76%) | 59d | $37,171 | +13.1% | +17.2% | -4.2% |
| 2021 | 140 | 113 / 27 | 120 / 140(86%) | 40d | $50,801 | +36.7% | +30.5% | +6.2% |
| 2022 | 31 | 19 / 12 | 23 / 31(74%) | 72d | $38,591 | -24.0% | -18.6% | -5.4% |
| 2023 | 107 | 79 / 28 | 88 / 107(82%) | 40d | $45,761 | +18.6% | +26.7% | -8.1% |
| 2024 | 131 | 105 / 26 | 112 / 131(85%) | 43d | $61,337 | +34.0% | +25.6% | +8.4% |
| 2025 | 110 | 87 / 23 | 91 / 110(83%) | 45d | $76,824 | +25.2% | +18.0% | +7.2% |
| 2026 | 28 | 18 / 10 | 28 / 28(100%) | 12d | $74,299 | -3.3% | -5.1% | +1.8% |
| 10-Year Total | 523 / 195 | 597 / 718(83%) | — | $74,299 | +395.3% | +14.1% | — | |
Trade Log
All2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
718 trades| Ticker | Signal | Entry | Exit | Hold | Entry $ | Exit $ | Target | Return | Exit Type | Portfolio After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | analyst | 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-09 | 20d | $319.68 | $345.75 | +5% | +8.15% | profit | $77,820 |
| NFLX | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-03-06 | 63d | $94.13 | $99.02 | +5% | +5.20% | profit | $77,782 |
| AMD | analyst | 2026-02-17 | 2026-02-24 | 7d | $202.15 | $213.84 | +5% | +5.78% | profit | $74,721 |
| HII | analyst | 2026-02-13 | 2026-02-19 | 6d | $406.75 | $443.14 | +5% | +8.95% | profit | $75,633 |
| VST | analyst | 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-17 | 6d | $165.00 | $173.68 | +5% | +5.26% | profit | $74,358 |
| ZBH | analyst | 2026-01-06 | 2026-02-13 | 38d | $91.85 | $96.45 | +5% | +5.01% | profit | $74,132 |
| FDX | analyst | 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-13 | 9d | $356.12 | $374.72 | +5% | +5.22% | profit | $74,132 |
| EL | analyst | 2026-02-09 | 2026-02-11 | 2d | $99.33 | $105.39 | +5% | +6.10% | profit | $74,089 |
| INCY | analyst | 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-09 | 3d | $103.75 | $109.03 | +5% | +5.09% | profit | $73,491 |
| PH | analyst | 2026-01-07 | 2026-02-06 | 30d | $927.08 | $976.49 | +5% | +5.33% | profit | $73,341 |
| DLR | analyst | 2026-01-16 | 2026-02-06 | 21d | $160.51 | $171.62 | +5% | +6.92% | profit | $73,341 |
| CB | analyst | 2026-01-09 | 2026-02-04 | 26d | $311.85 | $329.45 | +5% | +5.64% | profit | $73,504 |
| BAC | analyst | 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-04 | 20d | $52.72 | $55.38 | +5% | +5.05% | profit | $73,504 |
| MU | analyst | 2026-01-23 | 2026-01-28 | 5d | $397.16 | $435.28 | +5% | +9.60% | profit | $76,383 |
| PKG | analyst | 2026-01-07 | 2026-01-23 | 16d | $211.73 | $225.39 | +5% | +6.45% | profit | $76,558 |
| BX | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-16 | 14d | $153.36 | $161.62 | +5% | +5.39% | profit | $76,694 |
| ARE | analyst | 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-15 | 3d | $53.97 | $57.26 | +5% | +6.10% | profit | $77,846 |
| IBM | analyst | 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-12 | 6d | $293.33 | $310.41 | +5% | +5.82% | profit | $78,630 |
| HSY | analyst | 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-09 | 3d | $178.89 | $187.84 | +5% | +5.00% | profit | $78,853 |
| CVNA | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-07 | 5d | $421.68 | $450.78 | +5% | +6.90% | profit | $79,022 |
| VRTX | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-07 | 5d | $454.34 | $484.15 | +5% | +6.56% | profit | $79,022 |
| INTC | analyst | 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-07 | 1d | $39.86 | $42.63 | +5% | +6.95% | profit | $79,022 |
| STX | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-06 | 4d | $281.97 | $330.42 | +5% | +17.18% | profit | $78,360 |
| GEHC | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-06 | 4d | $82.55 | $86.70 | +5% | +5.03% | profit | $78,360 |
| KKR | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-06 | 4d | $128.65 | $135.57 | +5% | +5.38% | profit | $78,360 |
| RCL | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-06 | 4d | $278.50 | $297.75 | +5% | +6.91% | profit | $78,360 |
| WDC | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-05 | 3d | $177.20 | $187.88 | +5% | +6.03% | profit | $77,046 |
| ARES | seasonal | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-05 | 3d | $162.68 | $172.05 | +5% | +5.76% | profit | $77,046 |
| TTWO | analyst | 2025-10-01 | 2025-12-30 | 90d | $256.69 | $257.91 | +5% | +0.47% | breakeven | $77,411 |
| MU | analyst | 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-22 | 12d | $255.03 | $276.48 | +5% | +8.41% | profit | $77,100 |
| HSIC | analyst | 2025-02-18 | 2025-12-10 | 295d | $75.57 | $75.88 | +5% | +0.41% | breakeven | $77,046 |
| HBAN | analyst | 2025-07-07 | 2025-12-10 | 156d | $17.19 | $17.41 | +5% | +1.24% | breakeven | $77,046 |
| GEV | analyst | 2025-09-16 | 2025-12-10 | 85d | $628.77 | $722.47 | +5% | +14.90% | profit | $77,046 |
| NDAQ | analyst | 2025-11-21 | 2025-12-10 | 19d | $87.10 | $91.92 | +5% | +5.54% | profit | $77,046 |
| WDC | analyst | 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-10 | 2d | $170.93 | $181.95 | +5% | +6.45% | profit | $77,046 |
| CIEN | seasonal | 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | 7d | $194.49 | $212.93 | +5% | +9.48% | profit | $75,688 |
| DVN | analyst | 2025-01-16 | 2025-12-01 | 319d | $37.00 | $37.62 | +5% | +1.67% | breakeven | $75,597 |
| HAS | analyst | 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-26 | 15d | $77.23 | $82.10 | +5% | +6.32% | profit | $75,561 |
| NUE | analyst | 2025-08-15 | 2025-11-21 | 98d | $149.88 | $151.83 | +5% | +1.30% | breakeven | $72,883 |
| EQT | analyst | 2025-06-25 | 2025-11-11 | 139d | $59.63 | $60.52 | +5% | +1.49% | breakeven | $74,495 |
| EXPE | analyst | 2025-10-24 | 2025-11-07 | 14d | $216.77 | $257.82 | +5% | +18.94% | profit | $73,947 |
| EMR | analyst | 2025-08-08 | 2025-10-31 | 84d | $131.61 | $138.44 | +5% | +5.19% | profit | $74,122 |
| GD | analyst | 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-24 | 24d | $329.33 | $349.34 | +5% | +6.08% | profit | $75,680 |
| A | analyst | 2025-02-11 | 2025-10-03 | 234d | $141.09 | $141.39 | +5% | +0.21% | breakeven | $77,532 |
| COIN | seasonal | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-02 | 1d | $343.26 | $372.07 | +5% | +8.39% | profit | $76,905 |
| LRCX | analyst | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-02 | 1d | $132.19 | $146.75 | +5% | +11.01% | profit | $76,905 |
| FE | analyst | 2025-08-26 | 2025-10-01 | 36d | $42.90 | $45.09 | +5% | +5.12% | profit | $75,751 |
| LLY | analyst | 2025-08-28 | 2025-10-01 | 34d | $733.50 | $822.84 | +5% | +12.18% | profit | $75,751 |
| IQV | analyst | 2025-09-10 | 2025-10-01 | 21d | $189.26 | $203.79 | +5% | +7.68% | profit | $75,751 |
| OMC | analyst | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-30 | 6d | $75.28 | $80.73 | +5% | +7.25% | profit | $74,893 |
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Position sizing — Available cash is split equally across all qualifying signals on a given day (up to 20 concurrent positions). No fixed % — cash is always fully deployed when signals exist.
Exit rules — Sell when daily close hits +5% from entry (profit exit). After 90 calendar days with no +5%, lower the target to breakeven: hold until price returns to entry, then sell (breakeven exit). Year-end forced closures excluded from win-rate metric.
Signal sources — Analyst: Top Tier firm upgrades (win_rate > 50%, avg_ret_6m > 0%, ≥2 signals on pre-year data). Seasonal: ticker-month combos with historical avg_return ≥ 1.5% and win_rate ≥ 55% (≥3 years observed). Both filtered to expected return ≥ 1.5%.
Walk-forward — Training always uses data strictly before the test year. No lookahead bias.
SPY comparison — Hypothetical $15,000 invested in SPY at start of 2015, compounded annually at each year's SPY return.