Combination Memory
Learns which (analyst firm × sector × month) patterns are historically reliable. If Goldman upgraded Tech in March and it worked — next year that exact combo is trusted. Fallback chain: exact combo → firm+sector → firm alone. Minimum 5 historical signals and 55% hit rate to take a signal.
Combo 2017–2025 Total
+10.2%
compounded
All Signals Total
+11.8%
compounded
SPY Total
+250.7%
compounded
Combo Beat All Signals
4 / 9 years
avg combo +1.1% vs all +1.3%
Annual Returns — Combo Filter vs All Signals vs SPY
201732/110 signals kept▲ combo wins
Combo
+3.1%
All
+2.5%
SPY
+20.8%
exact=0firm+sector=17firm=15no data=78
201876/116 signals keptall wins
Combo
-0.5%
All
+0.5%
SPY
-5.3%
exact=0firm+sector=44firm=32no data=40
201961/139 signals keptall wins
Combo
+1.9%
All
+2.6%
SPY
+31.1%
exact=6firm+sector=26firm=35no data=72
2020167/781 signals kept▲ combo wins
Combo
+1.3%
All
+0.6%
SPY
+17.2%
exact=11firm+sector=104firm=69no data=597
2021643/1023 signals keptall wins
Combo
+1.2%
All
+1.9%
SPY
+30.5%
exact=117firm+sector=363firm=195no data=348
2022710/812 signals keptall wins
Combo
-0.7%
All
-0.4%
SPY
-18.6%
exact=193firm+sector=451firm=114no data=54
20231002/1306 signals keptall wins
Combo
+1.2%
All
+1.4%
SPY
+26.7%
exact=372firm+sector=535firm=151no data=248
20241131/1489 signals kept▲ combo wins
Combo
+1.6%
All
+1.5%
SPY
+25.6%
exact=519firm+sector=538firm=205no data=227
20251306/1552 signals kept▲ combo wins
Combo
+0.6%
All
+0.6%
SPY
+18.0%
exact=663firm+sector=632firm=113no data=144
Full Year Results
| Year | Combo Return | All Return | SPY | Kept | Total | Exact | Firm+Sec | Firm | No Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +3.1% | +2.5% | +20.8% | 32 | 110 | 0 | 17 | 15 | 78 |
| 2018 | -0.5% | +0.5% | -5.3% | 76 | 116 | 0 | 44 | 32 | 40 |
| 2019 | +1.9% | +2.6% | +31.1% | 61 | 139 | 6 | 26 | 35 | 72 |
| 2020 | +1.3% | +0.6% | +17.2% | 167 | 781 | 11 | 104 | 69 | 597 |
| 2021 | +1.2% | +1.9% | +30.5% | 643 | 1023 | 117 | 363 | 195 | 348 |
| 2022 | -0.7% | -0.4% | -18.6% | 710 | 812 | 193 | 451 | 114 | 54 |
| 2023 | +1.2% | +1.4% | +26.7% | 1002 | 1306 | 372 | 535 | 151 | 248 |
| 2024 | +1.6% | +1.5% | +25.6% | 1131 | 1489 | 519 | 538 | 205 | 227 |
| 2025 | +0.6% | +0.6% | +18.0% | 1306 | 1552 | 663 | 632 | 113 | 144 |