Backtest
Walk-forward 2015–2025. Train on pre-year data, test on Top Tier firm signals only. Select hold period and leverage to explore all combinations.
Hold Period
Leverage
$300 at risk per trade × 1x = $300 position sizeTotal Trades (2017–2025)
5,876
Overall Win Rate
57.3%
Avg Stock Return / Trade
+1.6%
raw signal quality
Avg Leveraged Return / Trade
+1.6%
avg stock ret × 1x
| Year | TT Firms | Trades | Win Rate | Avg Stock Retper trade (raw) | Avg Lev. Retstock ret × 1x | SPY (annual)buy-and-hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | — | — | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1.3% |
| 2016 | — | — | N/A | N/A | N/A | +13.6% |
| 2017 | 9 | 41 | 63.4% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +20.8% |
| 2018 | 17 | 89 | 46.1% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -5.3% |
| 2019 | 21 | 77 | 71.4% | +3.8% | +3.8% | +31.1% |
| 2020 | 27 | 258 | 60.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +17.2% |
| 2021 | 46 | 709 | 61.1% | +2.4% | +2.4% | +30.5% |
| 2022 | 57 | 824 | 49.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | -18.6% |
| 2023 | 57 | 1099 | 56.5% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +26.7% |
| 2024 | 71 | 1310 | 59.5% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +25.6% |
| 2025 | 76 | 1469 | 57.8% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +18.0% |
| Weighted Avg | 5,876 | 57.3% | +1.6% | +1.6% | +16.2% | |
Avg Stock Ret / Trade — the raw signal: when a Top Tier firm upgrades a stock, how much does it gain on average over the hold period? This is independent of leverage.
Avg Lev. Ret / Trade — avg stock return × leverage. If you apply 1x (e.g. via options), this is your average return per position. Losses included.
Why no "cumulative return"? — With 1,300 trades/year at concurrent 30-day holds, total capital deployed far exceeds the $15k base. A cumulative % from trade stacking would be misleading. Per-trade expectancy is the honest metric.